Bonsoir, Vous vous retrouvez dans le cas n°1 (voir le lien) avec un de vos chevaux non partant. How long until the first machine reaches superintelligence?Not shockingly, opinions vary wildly and this is a heated debate among scientists and thinkers. And when I hear what Anxious Avenue people have to say about AI, it often sounds like they’re saying, “Um we’re kind of being the first guy right now and instead we should probably be trying really hard to be Indiana Jones.”So what is it exactly that makes everyone on Anxious Avenue so anxious?Well first, in a broad sense, when it comes to developing supersmart AI, we’re creating something that will probably change everything, but in totally uncharted territory, and we have no idea what will happen when we get there. In my reading, I heard everything from godlike worship of him and his ideas to eye-rolling contempt for them. In an intelligence explosion—where the smarter a machine gets, the quicker it’s able to increase its own intelligence, until it begins to And since we just established that it’s a hopeless activity to try to understand the power of a machine only two steps above us, let’s very concretely state once and for all that Evolution has advanced the biological brain slowly and gradually over hundreds of millions of years, and in that sense, if humans birth an ASI machine, we’ll be dramatically stomping on evolution. everything that’s not receding from us at a rate greater than the speed of light due to the expansion of the universe. It’s been used in physics to describe a phenomenon like an infinitely small, dense black hole or the point we were all squished into right before the Big Bang. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. When did Turry go from only being able to write notes to suddenly using nanotechnology and knowing how to cause global extinction? If this does not help, see the steps under Some people have observed a problem where the app runs on the emulator, but images do not appear. When you get there, you retrieve a dude, bring him to 2015, and then walk him around and watch him react to everything. So the median opinion—the one right in the center of the world of AI experts—believes the most realistic guess for when we’ll hit the ASI tripwire is [the 2040 prediction for AGI + our estimated prediction of a 20-year transition from AGI to ASI] Of course, all of the above statistics are speculative, and they’re only representative of the center opinion of the AI expert community, but it tells us that a large portion of the people who know the most about this topic would agree that 2060 is a very reasonable estimate for the arrival of potentially world-altering ASI. Such is the mismatch between the power of our plaything and the immaturity of our conduct. Nom de l'auteur michel1912 Date 11 juillet 2017 il y a environ 3 ans réponse r. nonometeo nonometeo Niveau 4 5000 / 5000 points. If we were to ever invent something that drove us to extinction, that would be pulling out the rare black marble. Program it to keep us safe, it may imprison us at home. Typically, existential risk means extinction. So far, 99.9% of species have fallen off the balance beam, and it seems pretty clear that if a species keeps wobbling along down the beam, it’s only a matter of time before some other species, some gust of nature’s wind, or a sudden beam-shaking asteroid knocks it off. Humans also need to self-sustain and use resources like food, water, and shelter to do so. Just a bunch of people and computers living together in equality.The thing is that an AGI with an identical level of intelligence and computational capacity as a human would still have significant advantages over humans. They’re for extra info or thoughts that I didn’t want to put in the main text because either it’s just tangential thoughts on something or because I want to say something a notch too weird to just be there in the normal text.Kurzweil points out that his phone is about a millionth the size of, a millionth the price of, and a thousand times more powerful than his MIT computer was 40 years ago. Global warming?


Being at a thousandth in 2015 puts us right on pace to get to an affordable computer by 2025 that rivals the power of the brain.So on the hardware side, the raw power needed for AGI is technically available now, in China, and we’ll be ready for affordable, widespread AGI-caliber hardware within 10 years. Also possible is the immediate end of all life on Earth. That’s the power of exponential growth. So when do the experts think we’ll reach ASI?Müller and Bostrom also asked the experts how likely they think it is that we’ll reach ASI A) within two years of reaching AGI (i.e. It seems like a pretty intense place to be standing—but then you have to remember something about what it’s like to stand on a time graph: you can’t see what’s to your right. Apps with multiple screens must be packaged and sent to the phone to test. If you cannot access the MIT AI2 Companion App via the Google Play Store, you may download the APK file There are multiple reasons for this, and we're trying to track them all down. It is supposed to be standard on all Android devices. This is all before you show him the internet or explain things like the International Space Station, the Large Hadron Collider, nuclear weapons, or general relativity.This experience for him wouldn’t be surprising or shocking or even mind-blowing—those words aren’t big enough. The idea itself eats brains.”Once we really get nanotech down, we can use it to make tech devices, clothing, food, a variety of bio-related products—artificial blood cells, tiny virus or cancer-cell destroyers, muscle tissue, etc.—anything really. It's impossible for us to understand what it would be like for him to see shiny capsules racing by on a highway, talk to people who had been on the other side of the ocean earlier in the day, watch sports that were being played 1,000 miles away, hear a musical performance that happened 50 years ago, and play with my magical wizard rectangle, which he could use to capture a real-life image or record a living moment, generate a map with a paranormal moving blue dot that shows him where he is, look at someone's face and chat with them even though they're on the other side of the country, and worlds of other inconceivable sorcery.


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